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So what’s the purpose of this exercise? Here’s what I’m thinking. Everyone uses the bottom pyramid, both debtors and savers. And everyone uses the currency portion of the monetary pyramid. But only the savers utilize the top portion of the monetary pyramid. The debtors are no longer the counterparty to the savers so they have no business up there. The only way to get up there is to produce more than you consume so that you have some excess capital with which to buy gold. Then you are a saver. So it looks something like this:
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Side Note:
Yes, I do realize that there will still be investors, traders and speculators willing to risk capital in search of a yield, even in the hereafter. But once you come to terms with how much of that investing and trading world of today is actually filled with savers who think that's the only way to preserve purchasing power, you'll see just how tiny by comparison it will be after the transition.
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We ALL exist in the physical plane. That’s where we produce and consume. Currency facilitates the flow of value in the physical plane of production and consumption. Some consume amounts equal to their production, some consume more than they produce, and some consume less than they produce. Only this last group ventures above the currency line. The rest all exist comfortably below it.
Currency’s main purpose is to lubricate the flow of value. Gold’s main purpose is to store or stockpile value. Stock and flow. Gold and currency. Currency will also store value for periods of time, but that is not its main purpose. If currency happens to behave as a temporary store of value, that’s only a secondary effect created by its suitability to its primary role. Mises said as much (which is in my Honest Money post):
Mises: Money is a medium of exchange. It is the most marketable good which people acquire because they want to offer it in later acts of interpersonal exchange. Money is the thing which serves as the generally accepted and commonly used medium of exchange. This is its only function. All the other functions which people ascribe to money are merely particular aspects of its primary and sole function, that of a medium of exchange.
It’s probably best to replace Mises' use of the term "money" with "currency" for the purpose of my new model. It comes down to the whole semantic issue of whether Freegold is DEmonetizing gold as FOA said, or REmonetizing it as Moldbug says. Potato po-tah-toe semantics IMO. FOA's demonetizing really means de-currency-fying, or removing any sort of link between gold and currency that would cause a direct correlation between their prices. Moldbug's remonetizing means gold moving from a commoditized role into a wealth reserve or store of value role, which is commonly thought to be one of the three functions of "money" today (although Mises might disagree as in the above quote).
So that whole gold section of the top pyramid is like an exclusive country club for savers, like the men-only clubs of yesteryear, where we savers all sit around smoking cigars, practicing secret handshakes and agreeing that we'll only buy gold with the excess left over from our net-production and deferred consumption. And if there was an actual club, the savings medium could theoretically be anything we agreed on, like baseball cards. But because there’s not an actual club nor a secret handshake, we rely on the focal point and network effect principles to identify and optimize that singular item.
All gold transactions are essentially from saver to saver. The debtors need not be involved nor concern themselves with our exclusive club interactions. When a saver produces some excess and leaves it on the proverbial table at the economic fair, he buys gold from another saver (either inside or outside of his zone) who has decided to dishoard some of his gold in favor of consumption. It is the changing purchasing power of gold that determines how much gold (by weight) changes hands. (Please review my post The Debtors and the Savers if you are unclear about my novel demarcation.)
Debtors net-consume on a sliding scale ranging from consuming exactly in proportion to their production on down to consuming as much as they can get away with borrowing. So netting it out, all net-exports from a zone come from the savers. The debtors consume their own production plus some of the savers' production, and if there’s anything left over it is exported. That’s what happens in the "surplus ex-gold zone". Gold is flowing into that zone. So the debtor's actions do have an influence on the balance of trade even though they don’t contribute to exports.
But when the debtors are borrowing too much currency and consuming too much in the physical plane, there is a mechanism in Freegold that ultimately slows them down. That mechanism is the purchasing power of the currency. When the debtors are consuming too much they'll experience price inflation which will force them to consume less. So it is the purchasing power of the currency that regulates the debtors. But changes in the purchasing power of gold within the exclusive savers' club is not linked to the mechanism which limits the debtors.
The purchasing power of gold can be rising or falling regardless of whether currency prices are inflating or deflating because gold is like an isolated circuit. Savers choose to hoard or dishoard (produce more or consume more) based on the changing purchasing power of gold, not currency. So the savers' savings is circulating in a closed circuit where it can be experiencing the same or opposite effects as the currency. It is truly an escape option like OBA's Maglev.
So we can cut gold off of the pyramid structure if we want to, and we can put it wherever we want. We can stick it back in the physical plane since gold is physical, just like baseball cards, or we can set it off to the side, or we can just ignore it and cut it off, like this:
Where’s gold? Who cares? It is a closed, isolated circuit for the savers only. Now (above) we are dealing with only the parts that involve everybody. And it is no surprise that the monetary plane is so relatively small. At least it is no surprise here. A little currency goes a long way. From Gold: The Ultimate Wealth Reserve (2009):
Imagine an island of 100 men with a money supply of 1,000 sea shells. That's 10 sea shells for each man. But over the course of a year each man on the island works and earns an annual salary of 100 sea shells. So the total economic power of the island over a year is 10,000 sea shells. We could say that the GDP of the island is 10,000 ss. We could also say that the demand for sea shells is 10,000 over the period of one year and that demand is met by a supply of only 1,000 sea shells.
Now imagine that ownership of a piece of real estate on this island costs about 2 year's salary, and that there are enough pieces of land for each man to either own or rent one. So each piece of property might cost about 200 ss. The entire island's worth of residential real estate would be in the ballpark of 20,000 sea shells, twice the GDP. Yet the money supply still remains at 1,000 sea shells and that limited supply somehow meets demand.
The reason this works is because sea shells are the currency. They circulate and pass from hand to hand over a short timeframe. This is called velocity and it has the exact same effect on the value of a single sea shell as does the size of the money supply. On our island 1,000 sea shells change hands 10 times per year creating an island GDP of 10,000 ss. If they changed hands 20 times a year the GDP would be 20,000 ss. Or if we doubled the money supply to 2,000 sea shells that changed hands 10 times per year it would also yield a 20,000 ss GDP. So velocity and money supply of the currency have exactly the same effect.
So we can have a physical plane whose total net value is much greater than the total amount of cash. That’s because "The pure concept of money is our shared use of some thing as a reference point for expressing the relative value of all other things." (quote from Moneyness, a must-read post IMHO!)
Same goes for gold. All the gold can be worth many multiples of all the currency. There is no need for any correlation. Gold (in size) circulates slower than homes. It circulates on a generational time scale. So the currency denominates the value of everything else without needing to have any quantitative correlation with all that stuff. Can you imagine if there had to be $500,000 cash sitting in a vault somewhere earmarked specifically for your house in order for your house to be worth $500,000? No, of course not! Your house is worth $500,000 because that's its value relative to other things with known prices.
So now let's talk about the debtors.
What they like to do is indenture themselves for the future in order to obtain purchasing power in the present. They can only spend that purchasing power once and then it's gone. It has gone from them to someone who earned it. So the next person who spends that "borrowed into existence currency" is someone who already contributed to the economy and earned it. The borrower gets to spend it once and then he has to work it off by contributing to the economy over a period of time.
In the previous section I told you that price inflation will be the automatic governor of any consumption binges undertaken by the debtors in the hereafter. But while price inflation will limit the debtors' ability to perpetually consume, it will not affect the purchasing power stored in gold by the savers. In fact, my crystal ball informs me that it is the savers lending their excess production directly to the debtors that allows for the perpetual deficits we struggle with today.
I think that if we look closely at how the debtors use the fiat money system with and without the assistance of the savers, it will become clear that we will all be better off with a bifurcated monetary system. And it will certainly be clear that the savers have no business taking debtors on as the counterparty to their savings.
It would certainly be massively inflationary if we went from no debt to all of a sudden everyone borrowing at the same time. But in reality, there is someone working off his past debt whenever a new debtor goes into new debt. Of course old debtors and new ones don’t precisely offset each other, but that’s okay, because gold savings first float against the currency, and then they also float in their isolated circuit of choices made by savers based on the changing purchasing power of gold (not its currency price, but its purchasing power).
So gold has kind of a double float. It floats with the inflation/deflation of everything else. And then it also floats in a closed circuit consisting only of savers (and their "hoard/dishoard" choices), of whom the majority (measured by value stored) are intergenerational giants.
Now that I've hopefully established that in the hereafter a) "a little money (currency) goes a long way" and b) the savers are sufficiently protected against any inflationary mayhem the debtors may cause, let's zoom in on that small "monetary plane" and think about how it works.
In a future post I plan to delve into the vital and delicate relationship and balance between base money and bank credit money and how it affects the value of our money in terms of its ability to lubricate commerce. But for now, I have a couple of questions for you to ponder.
In thinking about the money supply (cash and credit inclusive) that is actually in the economy, would you count cash that is stacked up inside an ATM as part of that supply? Here's a hint: That cash is not in the economy until someone withdraws it from the ATM. If you count it while it's still inside the ATM then you are double counting that money.
Is it a positive sign for the future when there are $Trillions in savings sitting in cash and near cash equivalents? All that money must mean we are loaded, right? It must mean our cash dollar is strong which implies the market thinks it will be that way in the future, right? If $Trillions are good, wouldn't $Quadrillions, $Quintillions or $Sextillions be that much better? And with this thought in mind, does a rising amount of savings crowding into cash and near-cash equivalents represent a positive or negative view of the future?
Those super-low rates at the short end of the yield curve represent really big money, too big for FDIC protection, that just wants to save itself. It is big money that, like Bill Gross says, is far more concerned about the return of money (purchasing power preservation) than the return on money (yield). That short end is an awfully crowded place in the land of ZIRP forever and monetary evolution, especially when you consider the time factor. (H/T
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